按照国家统计局公布的1062万新生人口计算,2021年中国总和生育率仅为1.15,不仅低于世界上几乎所有国家,比严重少子老龄化的日本还低不少。少子化将深远影响中国经济增长潜力、创新活力、抚养负担、民众幸福指数乃至民族复兴。人口急剧萎缩,也意味着规模效应的持续弱化和综合国力的衰退。中国全球几乎最低的生育率的根本原因是全球几乎最高的生育成本,其原因是多方面的包括教育,住房等因素。非常有必要通过多项鼓励生育的政策,来大幅度降低养育成本。面对中国经济和人口的双重下行压力形势,我们建议通过鼓励生育、增加人口,来有效缓解经济低迷,提振社会信心。大力鼓励生育,短期来看,有助于扩大内需、稳增长、稳就业;长期来看,有助于提升人力资源、人力资本、经济社会活力,增强中国经济发展的信心,提升中国的创新力和竞争力。 [1] 国家统计局:2020年居民收入和消费支出情况. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202101/t20210118_1812425.html [2] 国家统计局:2019年居民收入和消费支出情况. http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202001/t20200117_1723396.html [3] 北京大学中国社会科学调查中心(ISSS):中国家庭追踪调查(China Family Panel Studies)CFPS2010-2018数据. https://opendata.pku.edu.cn/dataset.xhtmlpersistentId=doi:10.18170/DVN/45LCSO [4] 美国农业部:美国家庭育儿成本报告Expenditures on Children by Families. https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/archive/tag/expenditures-on-children-by-families [5] 育娲人口研究:《中国人口预测报告2021版》. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/IGIGSGxp8QLxbv_evsdFMA [6] Australian Institute of Family Studies:New estimates of the costs of children. https://aifs.gov.au/publications/issue/new-estimates-costs-children [7] Dollar and Sense (newspaper):How Much Does It Cost To Raise A Child In Singapore Till Age 18? [8] Swedbank’s Institute for personal finances:The cost of children. http://www.nordstjernan.com/news/education%7Cresearch/5783/ [9] Department of Child Welfare & Career Services, Zurich:Zurich child cost table from January 1, 2021. https://www.zh.ch/content/dam/zhweb/bilderdokumente/themen/familie/sorgerecht-unterhalt/kinderkosten_2021.pdf [10] Irish Times:You want two children? That’ll be €500,000 please. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/you-want-two-children-that-ll-be-500-000-please-1.2754454 [11] Federal Statistical Office:How much it costs to have a child. https://www.deutschland.de/en/topic/life/how-much-it-costs-to-have-a-child-in-germany [12] US Dept. of Agriculture:The Cost of Raising a Child. https://www.usda.gov/media/blog/2017/01/13/cost-raising-child [13] Cabinet Office Policy Office of symbiotic social policy:Raising child costs 63 million yen: study. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2001/05/15/national/raising-child-costs-63-million-yen-study/ [14] Statistics Canada, Money Sense:The Cost of Raising a Child in Canada. [15] Bank of New Zealand Baby Budget Calculator:The financial cost of raising a child. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-financial-cost-of-raising-a-child/CHX7FCGJJIZJCIVFBM64QIMH6I/ [16] Child Poverty Action Group:THE COST OF A CHILD IN 2021. https://cpag.org.uk/policy-and-campaigns/report/cost-child-2021 [17] Consumers Association – Social Promotion Association:How much does it cost to raise a child from 0 to 18 years old. [18] Ministry of Health & Welfare:The high price of raising a well-educated child. https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2013/04/10/socialAffairs/The-high-price-of-raising-a-welleducated-child/2969998.html 自 育娲人口研究 |
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