美國新冠確診水漲船高，特朗普事急信口胡言

李良書簡 07-05-2020_03

特朗普为美国急涨的新冠肺炎染疾人数而烦恼（ Ref.1），他说：

“ 人数，人数，人数！如果我们没有如此成功地检测了这么多的人，我们会有非常少的確診者。他在推特里说：不像其他国家没有大量的检测（见末表）, 如果你检测了四千万人，你会有非常多的人中标，于是就出現在晚间电视上的假新闻里了（Cases, Cases, Cases! If we didn’t test so much and so successfully, we would have very few cases,” the president tweeted. “If you test 40,000,000 people, you are going to have many cases that, without the testing (like other countries), would not show up every night on the Fake Evening News. ）”

特朗普的基本逻辑和是非對錯都顛倒了，一般民众听了也是疑信参半。分析如下：

• 特朗普说得对，如果没有大量的普检，一定没有这么多人得病确诊的证据；好比台湾和日本，检测人数和确诊者跟它们境内全人口相较都少得离谱，它们疫情统计和评估的可信度，接近于零（见下图和末表）。

• 特朗普错的是，如果没有这么多的人患病，即使全部美国人口都检测了，也不会有这么多的确诊。得病者越多，检测出来的确诊人数也越多；有因，才有果，所以晚间电视播报的确诊和死亡人數，是真新闻，不是假新闻！

• 美国之所以因为新冠肺炎确诊和死亡人数如此之多，特朗普跟他的执政团队自副总统彭斯以下，过去半年大家有目共睹的甩锅他人，乖张离谱，无知傲慢，荒腔走板(如 Ref.2)的防疫措施，都要負直接责任。

===========================================================

Ref. 1：Trump voices frustration with soaring COVID-19 totals: 'Cases, cases, cases!'

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/505872-trump-voices-frustration-with-soaring-covid-19-totals-cases-cases

By J. Edward Moreno - 07/04/20 03:53 PM EDT

President Trump voiced frustration Saturday with rising COVID-19 case counts as both the U.S. and many states have reported new record totals in recent days.

“Cases, Cases, Cases! If we didn’t test so much and so successfully, we would have very few cases,” the president tweeted. “If you test 40,000,000 people, you are going to have many cases that, without the testing (like other countries), would not show up every night on the Fake Evening News.”

Trump said that the media has an appetite for reporting on more cases but  doesn’t report that  “deaths and the all important Mortality Rate goes down.” 

Over the past month, coronavirus spikes have popped up across states including Arizona, Texas and California, and this week, the U.S. reported its highest single-day new case total.

Administration officials have blamed the surges on increased testing, but health advocates have pointed out that rates of positive tests are also increasing.

At an indoor campaign rally in Oklahoma last month, Trump suggested that the country should test less so the number of cases wouldn’t increase, a statement his press secretary later said was a joke. Trump insisted both that he was being sarcastic and that he doesn't kid around about testing. 

Experts have tied the recent dip in mortality to several causes, such as the fact that more young people are being infected now than at the start of the pandemic, while warning that fatality surges are likely to follow the waves of new infections.

 

Ref. 2： FDA commissioner declines to confirm Trump claim that 99 percent of COVID-19 cases are 'harmless'

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/505904-fda-commissioner-declines-to-confirm-trump-claim-that-99-percent?rnd=1593957086

地區 人口 纍積檢測人數 每萬人檢測 確診 死亡 康復 帶病 每萬人確診 每萬人死亡 每萬人帶病