乌克兰军事形势（3月29日）

远航一号

The Russian forces will probably take another four weeks to destroy the Ukrainian units at the Donetzk front. The Russian command will then have to decide which parts of the Ukraine it will want to keep under control. Next to Donetzk and Luhansk the region north of Crimea is a likely candidate. Odessa and Dnipro may also be still on the menu. The regions can be kept as statelets under local control or form a confederation that may well institutionalize a new country.

未来四周，俄军将首先消灭顿巴斯地区乌军主力。然后，俄军将视情况决定是否向敖德萨和第聂伯罗方向发展。所有俄控地区将或者实行地方自治，或者在宣布独立后组成一个新的邦联。

远航一号

The de-nazification of the Ukraine has proven to be more difficult. The main fascist units of the Azov regiment were caught up in Mariupol where several thousand of them have been or will be eliminated. More fascist units at the Donetzk front will also soon be taken out. But during the eight years since the anti-democratic coup in Kiev the fascist ideology has deeply infiltrated all Ukrainian government structures. It will be hard for the Ukrainians to remove it even as its failures become obvious.

乌克兰的去纳粹化则更加困难。一方面，马里乌波尔的亚速团即将被全歼，顿巴斯地区的法西斯分子也将被消灭。另一方面，自2014年政变以来，乌克兰政府已经深度纳粹化。

远航一号

The de-militarization of the main forces of the Ukrainian army will happen in the Donbas cauldron. The units there will have to give up or they will destroyed by the materially vastly superior Russian forces.

在顿巴斯包围圈内的乌军主力将或者投降或者被歼

远航一号

The material de-militarization of the Ukraine is mostly done. During the next few weeks the Russian air and long range artillery forces will finish that task. The Ukraine would have to completely rearm, starting by about zero, should it want to regain significant military capabilities. It is hard to see how it will ever be able to finance that.

去军事化实际上已经基本完成。在未来数周，俄军的空袭和远程火炮将完全完成这一任务。

远航一号

The general task for the whole military operation as set out by the Russian command was to de-militarize and to de-nazificate the Ukraine.

俄军的总任务是实现乌克兰的去军事化和去纳粹化

远航一号

Those regions are tundra, very flat with little woods, where one can see an approaching enemy from miles away. It will be extremely difficult for a guerilla force to survive there. That is likely the reason why the Russian forces have done little to interrupt the arms smuggling into western Ukraine.

在乌克兰东部和西部之间，分布着大量苔原（疑为沼泽地之误），地势平坦，少见森林，在数英里外就可以观察到敌人，不利于乌克兰法西斯分子组织所谓游击战。

远航一号

The U.S. and Polish military are helping to smuggle small arms stuff through the western Ukrainian boarder. These are anti-tank missiles, old short range anti-air missiles as well as machine guns, mortars and ammunition. This is equipment for a guerilla war against an occupation force. But except for the east and maybe some parts in the south the Russian forces do not plan to occupy anything.

美国和波兰军事当局试图将反坦克导弹、防空导弹、机枪、迫击炮和弹药等通过乌克兰西部边境走私进乌克兰。这些武器可以用于打击占领军的游击战。但目前俄军似乎不准备占领乌克兰东部和南部以外的地区。

远航一号

It will probably take a few days for the Russian forces to regroup and resupply for that next phase of the war. I expect it to start around the end of this week.

俄军重新集结以及后勤物资准备到位仍需要几天时间。

远航一号

The Russian command has decided to now concentrate on enveloping and destroying Ukraine's main forces at the Donetsk front. These are the most heavy equipped and most experienced units of the Ukrainian army. Since last fall some 60,000 men had been assembled there for a full fledged war on Donetzk, an attack that the Russian operation successfully preempted.

俄军统帅部下一步将集中兵力包围和歼灭在顿巴斯地区的乌军主力6万人。

路石

主编辛苦了。感谢