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标题: 俄乌战争与美、俄全球战略 [打印本页]

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:10:56 标题: 俄乌战争与美、俄全球战略

推特上看到一组系列贴，对俄、美双方在当前战争中战略的演变提出了一些新颖看法，不仅围绕乌克兰，而且涉及东欧、中东和非洲。下面做一个简单的编译，供大家参考

What's the new US strategy in Ukraine?Originally was to create a threat that Russia couldn't ignore: a nazi regime designed to draw the Russians into Ukraine & then imposition of attrition cost over years.On February 2022, the US was excited to see its plan work. Did it?

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278673635827712

美国在乌克兰战争中还有什么新战略？

一开始，美国的目的是造成这样一种威胁，大到俄罗斯无法置之不理：建立一个纳粹政权，以便将俄罗斯牵制在乌克兰，然后在长期消耗中削弱俄罗斯。

2022年2月，美国高兴地看到一切都在按照它的计划进行。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:13:41

With columns surrounding Kiev, and Russia launching an all out missile attack and landings all over Ukraine, America was sure that the bait it set was swallowed by Putin.

And then, out of no where, Russia withdrew -- not as a result of military pressure but a political decision!

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278676559319040

随着俄军纵队逼近基辅、俄军在乌克兰全境实施导弹打击，美国断定：普京已经上钩了。

可是，然后，俄军开始撤退了 —— 不是由于军事压力，而是根据政治上的决策。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:13:55

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:18:03

To review the events, it's important to note the following proliferation risk sites in Ukraine:

Chernobyl [captured, radioactive material removed]
Hostomel air base [captured by Russia in lightning attack]
ZNPP [captured]
SUNPP [failed salient, withdrawn]
xNPP [no attempt made]

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278679583301632

在乌克兰境内存在核扩散危险的地区：

切尔诺贝利（被俄军夺取，放射性材料被转移）
霍斯托梅利空军基地（被俄军以闪电式空降夺取）
扎波罗热核电站（被俄军夺取）

此外，俄军对另外一处核电站突击未遂；还有一处核电站，俄军未尝试夺取。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:22:19

Russia minimised the worst risks, Chernobyl for material [albeit 3 other NPPs], ZNPP right in Novorossiya and Hostomel which is said to have hosted soviet nuclear weapons that Ukraine failed to return to Russia.
By end of March 2022, Russia switched to an depletion strategy. Why?

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278685128273920

通过夺取和确保这些地方，俄罗斯将核扩散的危险减少到最低限度。扎波罗热核电站位于“新俄罗斯”地区之内；霍斯托梅利空军基地据说藏有乌克兰在“独立”时暗中保留下来的核武器。

去年三月底以后，俄军开始转入长期消耗战略。为什么呢？

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:32:47

So Russia took its sweet time, and exercised reflexive control to attack two centres of gravity of its enemy:
* Ukrainian man power using artillery and political-psychological operations, forcing Ukraine to hold, contest & attack territory.
* NATO's collective military strength.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278690228523009

接下来，俄罗斯从容不迫，集中打击敌方所依赖的两大重心：

首先是通过优势火力以及政治心理战消耗乌克兰的人力资源，迫使乌军反复争夺并坚守每一寸土地

同时又消耗整个北约的军事力量

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:36:07

The former is understood by all now. The latter is becoming clearer: NATO is running out of ammunition, fuel and sovereign capital to continue this war.

Every month that passes results in a stronger Russia and a weaker NATO (and US).
But why do they go on? Why doesn't NATO fold?

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278692782882816

对乌克兰人力资源的消耗，现在已经是众所周知了。对北约的消耗也越来越清晰了：北约的炮弹快用完了，继续进行战争的政治意志也动摇了。

战争每延长一个月，俄罗斯就越战越强，而北约、美帝则越战越弱。

但是，北约为什么还不放弃呢？

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:40:55

Because Russia flipped the table: Ukraine turned into a threat that NATO couldn't ignore.

A collapsed state bordering NATO will splinter into warlords, armed with dangerous weapons and a proliferation risk.
A defeat in Ukraine would result in a paradigm shift against the west.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278697094545408

因为俄罗斯把桌子翻了个底朝天（意思是：以其人之道还治其人之身），乌克兰变成了北约不能置之不理的严重威胁：

在北约旁边，出现了一个崩溃的国家，军阀割据，分别拥有危险的武器，核武器可能扩散；如果西方在乌克兰失败了，天下大势将对西方极为不利。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:46:09

But most dangerously, a desperate Ukraine would commit an act so risky, like destroying ZNPP, that the entire planet's future would be in peril.

Thus, Russia fixed NATO in Ukraine and kept the power change differential flowing in its favour.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278699724439553

最危险的是，处于穷途末路的乌克兰也许会失去理智，破坏扎波罗热核电站，置整个人类的安全于不顾

北约和乌克兰都被困住了；力量对比不断地向有利于俄罗斯的方向变化

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:49:07

The US/UK tried stinging terrorist attacks against Russian infrastructure around the world and inside Russia (Nordstream, Kakhovka dam,Kerch bridge x2) but failed to change this dynamic. And faced sometimes apocalyptic retaliation.
i.e. Russia firmly controls the pace of the war.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278703096582144

美、英情报部门及其乌克兰走狗妄图用恐怖主义破坏来改变战争进程，他们破坏了北溪二号、卡霍夫卡大坝，两次破坏刻赤大桥。但是，俄罗斯坚定地控制着战争的节奏。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:52:21

The US is stuck with its own creation, the nazi regime in Kiev and seemingly no end to the loss of material wealth, military equipment and even specialist man power

A new strategy was needed.
Primarily, the US had to do what Russia refused to: Liquidate the Ukrainian state! How?

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278706561101824

美国正在自食其恶果，将军事装备以及各种特种兵源源不断地扔进无底洞。

美国需要一种新战略。美国要做的，是俄罗斯到目前为止不愿意做的，那就是，消灭现在的乌克兰国家。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 07:55:27

1. Using political and economic pressure to force Ukraine to deplete its forces sooner rather than later, leaving no path to victory and no means by which the existing regime could even secure itself.

This is exemplified by the command to hold Bakhmut and attack Zaporozhye.

2. Leaving no means by which the war could be "frozen" in Russia's advantage (leaving a permanent drain on NATO without risk to Russia). This forces Russia to eventually come & occupy Ukraine
This is exemplified by the statement that Ukraine would join NATO at the end of the war.

一方面，逼迫乌克兰死守巴赫穆特、盲目进攻扎波罗热，以便更快地将乌克兰现有的兵力消耗完。这样，就可以避免战争以对俄罗斯有利的方式“冻结”起来，从而迫使俄罗斯去占领整个乌克兰。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:00:59

Secondarily, the US wanted to amplify even more risks to Russia around the world.
Of the original RAND strategy paper, only two viable "cost-imposing" options remain, escalation in Syria and an attack on Transnistria.
Yet, there are more theatres where costs/risks can be imposed.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278713934692352

然后，就是在全球范围内给俄罗斯制造更多、更大的风险，从而使得俄罗斯疲于奔命、穷于应付，直至被拖垮。

这就是2019年兰德公司报告所制定的策略：

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

美国可以尝试在叙利亚升级，还可以袭击德涅斯特河沿岸，在这两个地方，都可以迫使俄罗斯承担其所不愿意承担的成本。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:02:57

For example, the Suwałki Gap and a blockade on Kalinigrad would be viable with Sweden's entry into NATO.
Or Polish entry into Ukraine, supposedly without NATO support. This threat acts in synergy with the 2nd point of the first, forcing Russia to mobilise 500k men and take it all

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278717298581504

此外，美国还可以试图封锁加里宁格勒，怂恿波兰派兵到乌克兰参战，以达到迫使俄罗斯进行50万人以上动员的目的。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:03:10

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:10:38

Russia has already anticipated these moves, and started creating new threats for NATO with the deployment of Wagner in Belarus (now armed with nuclear weapons)

Russia, along with its friend (not ally) in Iran will also create new threats and imposition of costs to the west in Syria using symmetric and asymmetric means.

We're beginning to see this with joint SyAAF-VKS exercises and attacks on US drones. Heavy bombing of Al-Tanf is next.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278724584017920

俄罗斯，看穿了美帝的阴谋，并以自己的方式给北约增加新的风险。首先，是把瓦格纳部队调到白俄罗斯，同时在白俄罗斯部署了核武器。

同时，俄罗斯与伊朗合作给在叙利亚的美军基地制造麻烦，击落美军的无人机，并可能轰炸美军在阿尔坦夫的军事基地。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:13:39

Seemingly forgotten by most commentators, the US strategy in Ukraine is largely tied to its war on Syria. Crimea was used to arm the latter, which itself helps Russia keeps the Black sea open from both ends.

Losing in one theatre means automatic defeat in the other. For both.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278727276843008

美国在乌克兰的战略与其在叙利亚战争中的战略是密切相关的。俄罗斯依靠其在克里米亚的基地向叙利亚提供武器；克里米亚也是确保黑海两翼都对俄罗斯开放的关键。

乌克兰与叙利亚战场是唇齿相依的关系。对美、俄双方来说，在两个战场中任何一个的失败，都自动意味着另外一个战场的失败。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:16:11

Let's justify this statement:
- If Russia loses in Syria, Turkey has no risk against it and will eventually close the Bosphorus strait to Russia, the black sea becomes a dead pond.
- If the US loses in Syria,Turkey itself will start to drift away from NATO. i.e. Russian pond.
etc

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278730229563392

如果俄罗斯失去了叙利亚，土耳其就不必担心来自南面的压力，就可能向俄罗斯关闭博斯普鲁斯海峡，黑海就成了死湖。

反之，如果美国失去了叙利亚，土耳其就会逐渐脱离北约，而黑海则实际上成为俄罗斯的内湖。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:20:11

Finally, while the US (and indeed NATO as a whole) is pinned down in Ukraine and Syria, Russia is going to town in Africa.

Country after country has been turned with the help of Wagner (i.e. the GRU), the European theft of African wealth is coming to an end.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278733060726784

就在美国以及整个北约被困在乌克兰和叙利亚的时候，俄罗斯正在非洲大展宏图。一个又一个非洲国家在瓦格纳（实际上是俄罗斯情报机关的代理人）的帮助下改换门庭。欧洲人窃取非洲财富的时代就要结束了。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:21:38

The US has to wrap it all up, at some point or the other or the costs around the world will start to rise exponentially. It has to mirror this cost.

The US must fold in both Ukraine & Syria. It is aware of the requirement of the former, but not yet of the latter. Not yet.

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685278736156176384

美国人必须要在乌克兰和叙利亚收摊了，否则，它在世界各地所面临的成本将以几何级数增长。

作者: 远航一号 时间: 2023-7-30 08:25:34

https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/1685301610694725632

It's only going to get worse, if they lose Congo it's game over.

如果他们（西方）再失掉刚果，那就一切都完了

作者: 爱琳娜 时间: 2023-7-30 09:46:38

比起国内各大论坛的右派自由派小粉红，西方网友的认知还真是清晰的多。

作者: 隐秘战线 时间: 2023-7-30 11:10:49

本帖最后由隐秘战线于 2023-7-30 11:11 编辑

爱琳娜发表于 2023-7-30 09:46
比起国内各大论坛的右派自由派小粉红，西方网友的认知还真是清晰的多。

不能这么说，我们所看到的只不过是西方群众中认识较为清晰的那一小部分
其余不明就里被政治正确裹挟，甚至干脆就是反动政治正确追随者的还是一抓一大把

作者: 特浓的坎通人 时间: 2023-7-31 19:22:41

隐秘战线发表于 2023-7-30 11:10
不能这么说，我们所看到的只不过是西方群众中认识较为清晰的那一小部分
其余不明就里被政治正确裹挟，甚至 ...

的确如此，在外网说大实话的后果不比国内轻

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